czwartek, 16 września 2010
The Prudent Investor: CHART OF THE DAY: Rocketing US Consumer Loans Indi...
The Prudent Investor: CHART OF THE DAY: Rocketing US Consumer Loans Indi...: "The US economy may be in for the dreaded double dip, consumer loan data indicates. Recording the sharpest spike since data collection began,..."
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Your interpretation of the data looks to be not correct.
OdpowiedzUsuńWhen you look at the 1 year chart (you have to redraw it here: http://www.research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?chart_type=line&width=1000&height=600&preserve_ratio=true&s[1][id]=CONSUMER - use time frame 2010--01-01 2010-08-01 - you will see that most of the consumer credit value increase came in the months of March - April 2010. It (the spike) happened because of an accounting rule change that obliged the banks to move some of their off balance sheet debt onto their balance sheets. Its not sudden organic consumer loans growth. You can also notice that those elevated levels of consumer loans did not change much since may 2010. So your whole interpretation in view of merits of this statistics looks wrong, mainly because the consumer loan growth was not organic.
Lili